How the Fermi Problem might help us make more educated guesses

How the Fermi Problem might help us make more educated guesses

To be honest, no one outside Rockstar North and their cast-iron NDAs can tell us a single thing about GTA6, but based on similar previous cases and a tested and reliable forecasting technique known as the Fermi problem, we can draw a credible enough outline. What exactly is the Fermi problem? The term has caught on recently thanks to the book Superforecasting, and it all starts with the question: How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?

If you simply had to give an answer without any outside help, you would probably find this question a tough nut to crack. The point is, the way you approach the question itself tells a lot about the probable accuracy of the prediction.

To put it in a nutshell, it’s possible to break down the question into more easily manageable parts, like: What’s my rough estimation of the overall population of Chicago? How many individuals are there in every house? How many households may have a piano? How often does the instrument need to be tuned? A logical conclusion is likely to come up with a figure of 200-300 piano tuners (as outlined in the link above). And the answer is 290.

So, despite the fact that not much is known about GTA 6 is known at the moment, quite a few things can be deduced. You can look at the history of the game, follow your intuition or make educated assumptions based on what you know about its creators, analyze extracts from interviews, CV searches and take into account the whole picture of societal – and technology – trends, and thus to form a clearer opinion. Trying to forecast GTA 6 is not purely a ‘Fermi Problem’, because we are not talking about a quantitative issue, but the general techniques are relevant.

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